by Jim Hinshaw
Yes, that is a Bob Dylan song from 1964. My point is simple: we are in a season that is changing—and changing fast.
Pretend Bud is a heating and air guy from the early 2000s. He gets locked up for something he didn’t do (everyone behind bars is innocent), spends 20-plus years incarcerated, and walks out in 2026. He looks around at the HVAC industry and says, “I wanna go back to the big house!”
Think about what has changed. New efficiency ratings dictate what equipment we install. New refrigerants require different procedures, tools and training. Equipment is more complicated. And the business side has changed just as dramatically.
I recently asked AI about a Lennox 16 SEER2, two-stage AC with a 90% variable-speed furnace, installed in an attic. And the brand is not critical to this illustration, just needed a real unit for Ai to gather an estimate. The number came back at more than $18,000 at a 50% gross margin. Even AI recognized that was considerably higher than the $6,000–$8,000 numbers homeowners see online.
Bud would be shocked. When he went away, $6,000–$8,000 might have bought a pretty good 12 SEER system. Now we’re asking homeowners to consider $15,000-plus.
How do we sell that?
First, financing must be part of the conversation. Spreading the investment over 10–12 years changes the discussion. Add a 10-year parts-and-labor warranty, and the homeowner isn’t just buying equipment—they’re buying predictable ownership costs.
But the bigger change is this: we don’t sell boxes anymore. We sell solutions.
The customer doesn’t wake up wanting a 16 SEER2, two-stage system. They wake up because the bedroom is too hot, the living room is too cold, the house is humid, the equipment is noisy or one room is never comfortable.
Ask: “Which rooms aren’t comfortable?” Then find out what “uncomfortable” means. Temperature? Humidity? Airflow? Noise? Drafts?
Once you understand the problem, help the homeowner visualize what life will be like when you solve it. Solutions to comfort problems are much more important than the box sitting in the backyard.
Then Bud gets another surprise. The homeowner says, “I saw on Facebook this should only cost $7,500.” Bud asks who said that. “Ronnie G. She’s an influencer.”
“What does she do?”
“She makes TikTok videos telling people what things should cost. She has 3.8 million followers and gets referral fees when people buy what she recommends.”
Another Bud mind-blown moment.
Welcome to 2026.
The consumer has more information than ever—and not all of it is accurate. Your customer may walk into your home already convinced they know what your system should cost.
Bud needs new skills, too. Load calculations, for example. Instead of spending an hour measuring and doing the math, technology such as Conduit Tech can dramatically speed the process. Today’s homeowner may actually appreciate seeing an iPad, radar and technology used to determine the proper equipment size.
And here’s the real point: the customer is Bud.
They are also surprised by a $15,000 price. They have seen $7,600 systems online. They don’t understand SEER2, refrigerant changes or the additional requirements of today’s equipment. They may have simply learned to live with an uncomfortable house—wearing sweaters in the winter and running fans in the summer.
Our job is to show them that they don’t have to live that way.
And please don’t forget: if a three-ton system isn’t keeping up, the answer isn’t automatically a four-ton system. Ductwork, insulation and airflow problems may be the real issue. Bigger is not always better. We need the tools and knowledge to determine what the home actually needs.
Bottom line: it is harder to sell replacement systems today. The economy, interest rates, social media, online pricing and an increasingly informed consumer are all working against us. One more note, we must be available when the customer needs us, weekends, holidays, all that. That is where Ai can help, some are using Ai to answer phone calls at all hours, even set up appointments on a schedule that meets the customer’s needs.
So don’t walk into a home with yesterday’s tools or yesterday’s sales process.
Bring the technical tools. Bring the diagnostic tools. Bring financing. Ask better comfort questions. Use technology. Educate the customer. And most importantly, help them visualize the result—not just the equipment.
Because sometimes Bud isn’t the only thing that has been locked up for 20 years. Our sales process may have been locked up with him.
The times really are a-changin’.
Thanks for listening. We’ll talk later. Jim